The Global Market for Biofuels to 2033

1              RESEARCH METHODOLOGY         18

2              EXECUTIVE SUMMARY   19

• 2.1          Market drivers  19
• 2.2          Market challenges           20
• 2.3          Liquid biofuels market 2020-2033, by type and production            21

3              INDUSTRY DEVELOPMENTS 2020-2023    24

4              BIOFUELS            28

• 4.1          The global biofuels market           28
  • 4.1.1      Diesel substitutes and alternatives           28
  • 4.1.2      Gasoline substitutes and alternatives      30
• 4.2          Comparison of biofuel costs 2022, by type            30
• 4.3          Types    31
  • 4.3.1      Solid Biofuels     31
  • 4.3.2      Liquid Biofuels  32
  • 4.3.3      Gaseous Biofuels             32
  • 4.3.4      Conventional Biofuels    33
  • 4.3.5      Advanced Biofuels           33
• 4.4          Feedstocks         34
  • 4.4.1      First-generation (1-G)    36
  • 4.4.2      Second-generation (2-G)              37
    • 4.4.2.1   Lignocellulosic wastes and residues         38
    • 4.4.2.2   Biorefinery lignin              39
  • 4.4.3      Third-generation (3-G)  43
    • 4.4.3.1   Algal biofuels     43
  • 4.4.4      Fourth-generation (4-G) 46
  • 4.4.5      Advantages and disadvantages, by generation    46

5              HYDROCARBON BIOFUELS            48

• 5.1          Biodiesel              48
  • 5.1.1      Biodiesel by generation 49
  • 5.1.2      Production of biodiesel and other biofuels            50
    • 5.1.2.1   Pyrolysis of biomass        51
    • 5.1.2.2   Vegetable oil transesterification 54
    • 5.1.2.3   Vegetable oil hydrogenation (HVO)         55
    • 5.1.2.4   Biodiesel from tall oil      57
    • 5.1.2.5   Fischer-Tropsch BioDiesel             57
    • 5.1.2.6   Hydrothermal liquefaction of biomass    59
    • 5.1.2.7   CO2 capture and Fischer-Tropsch (FT)     59
    • 5.1.2.8   Dymethyl ether (DME)   60
  • 5.1.3      Global production and consumption        60
• 5.2          Renewable diesel            63
  • 5.2.1      Production          63
  • 5.2.2      Global consumption       64
• 5.3          Bio-jet (bio-aviation) fuels            66
  • 5.3.1      Description         66
  • 5.3.2      Global market   66
  • 5.3.3      Production pathways     67
  • 5.3.4      Costs     69
  • 5.3.5      Biojet fuel production capacities                70
  • 5.3.6      Challenges          70
  • 5.3.7      Global consumption       71
• 5.4          Syngas  72
• 5.5          Biogas and biomethane 73
  • 5.5.1      Feedstocks         75
• 5.6          Bio-naphtha       77
  • 5.6.1      Overview            77
  • 5.6.2      Markets and applications              78
  • 5.6.3      Production capacities, by producer, current and planned               79
  • 5.6.4      Production capacities, total (tonnes), historical, current and planned        81

6              ALCOHOL FUELS               82

• 6.1          Biomethanol      82
  • 6.1.1      Methanol-to gasoline technology             82
    • 6.1.1.1   Production processes     83
• 6.2          Bioethanol          86
  • 6.2.1      Technology description 86
  • 6.2.2      1G Bio-Ethanol  86
  • 6.2.3      Ethanol to jet fuel technology     87
  • 6.2.4      Methanol from pulp & paper production               88
  • 6.2.5      Sulfite spent liquor fermentation              88
  • 6.2.6      Gasification        89
    • 6.2.6.1   Biomass gasification and syngas fermentation    89
    • 6.2.6.2   Biomass gasification and syngas thermochemical conversion        89
  • 6.2.7      CO2 capture and alcohol synthesis           90
  • 6.2.8      Biomass hydrolysis and fermentation     90
    • 6.2.8.1   Separate hydrolysis and fermentation    90
    • 6.2.8.2   Simultaneous saccharification and fermentation (SSF)     91
    • 6.2.8.3   Pre-hydrolysis and simultaneous saccharification and fermentation (PSSF)             91
    • 6.2.8.4   Simultaneous saccharification and co-fermentation (SSCF)            91
    • 6.2.8.5   Direct conversion (consolidated bioprocessing) (CBP)      92
  • 6.2.9      Global ethanol consumption       93
• 6.3          Biobutanol          94
  • 6.3.1      Production          96

7              CHEMICAL RECYCLING FOR BIOFUELS      97

• 7.1          Plastic pyrolysis 97
• 7.2          Used tires pyrolysis         98
  • 7.2.1      Conversion to biofuel     99
• 7.3          Co-pyrolysis of biomass and plastic wastes           100
• 7.4          Gasification        101
  • 7.4.1      Syngas conversion to methanol 102
  • 7.4.2      Biomass gasification and syngas fermentation    106
  • 7.4.3      Biomass gasification and syngas thermochemical conversion        106
• 7.5          Hydrothermal cracking   107

8              ELECTROFUELS (E-FUELS)             108

• 8.1          Introduction       108
  • 8.1.1      Benefits of e-fuels           110
• 8.2          Feedstocks         111
  • 8.2.1      Hydrogen electrolysis     111
  • 8.2.2      CO2 capture       112
• 8.3          Production          112
• 8.4          Electrolysers      114
  • 8.4.1      Commercial alkaline electrolyser cells (AECs)       116
  • 8.4.2      PEM electrolysers (PEMEC)         116
  • 8.4.3      High-temperature solid oxide electrolyser cells (SOECs)  116
• 8.5          Costs     116
• 8.6          Market challenges           119
• 8.7          Companies         120

9              ALGAE-DERIVED BIOFUELS           121

• 9.1          Technology description 121
• 9.2          Production          121

10           GREEN AMMONIA           123

• 10.1        Production          123
  • 10.1.1    Decarbonisation of ammonia production               125
  • 10.1.2    Green ammonia projects              126
• 10.2        Green ammonia synthesis methods         126
  • 10.2.1    Haber-Bosch process      126
  • 10.2.2    Biological nitrogen fixation          127
  • 10.2.3    Electrochemical production         128
  • 10.2.4    Chemical looping processes        128
• 10.3        Blue ammonia   128
  • 10.3.1    Blue ammonia projects  128
• 10.4        Markets and applications              129
  • 10.4.1    Chemical energy storage              129
    • 10.4.1.1                Ammonia fuel cells          129
  • 10.4.2    Marine fuel         130
• 10.5        Costs     132
• 10.6        Estimated market demand           134
• 10.7        Companies and projects 134

11           BIOFUELS FROM CARBON CAPTURE         136

• 11.1        Overview            137
• 11.2        CO2 capture from point sources 139
• 11.3        Production routes            140
• 11.4        Direct air capture (DAC) 141
  • 11.4.1    Description         141
  • 11.4.2    Deployment       143
  • 11.4.3    Point source carbon capture versus Direct Air Capture     143
  • 11.4.4    Technologies     144
    • 11.4.4.1                Solid sorbents   145
    • 11.4.4.2                Liquid sorbents 147
    • 11.4.4.3                Liquid solvents  148
    • 11.4.4.4                Airflow equipment integration   149
    • 11.4.4.5                Passive Direct Air Capture (PDAC)             149
    • 11.4.4.6                Direct conversion             149
    • 11.4.4.7                Co-product generation  150
    • 11.4.4.8                Low Temperature DAC  150
    • 11.4.4.9                Regeneration methods 150
  • 11.4.5    Commercialization and plants     151
  • 11.4.6    Metal-organic frameworks (MOFs) in DAC             152
  • 11.4.7    DAC plants and projects-current and planned      152
  • 11.4.8    Markets for DAC               159
  • 11.4.9    Costs     159
  • 11.4.10  Challenges          165
  • 11.4.11  Players and production  166
• 11.5        Methanol            166
• 11.6        Algae based biofuels       167
• 11.7        CO₂-fuels from solar        168
• 11.8        Companies         170
• 11.9        Challenges          172

12           COMPANY PROFILES       173 (171 company profiles)

13           REFERENCES       310

List of Tables

• Table 1. Market drivers for biofuels.        19
• Table 2. Market challenges for biofuels. 20
• Table 3. Liquid biofuels market 2020-2033, by type and production.          22
• Table 4. Industry developments in biofuels 2020-2023.    24
• Table 5. Comparison of biofuel costs (USD/liter) 2022, by type.   30
• Table 6. Categories and examples of solid biofuel.             31
• Table 7. Comparison of biofuels and e-fuels to fossil and electricity.           33
• Table 8. Classification of biomass feedstock.        34
• Table 9. Biorefinery feedstocks. 35
• Table 10. Feedstock conversion pathways.           35
• Table 11. First-Generation Feedstocks.   36
• Table 12.  Lignocellulosic ethanol plants and capacities.  38
• Table 13. Comparison of pulping and biorefinery lignins. 39
• Table 14. Commercial and pre-commercial biorefinery lignin production facilities and  processes 40
• Table 15. Operating and planned lignocellulosic biorefineries and industrial flue gas-to-ethanol.  42
• Table 16. Properties of microalgae and macroalgae.         44
• Table 17. Yield of algae and other biodiesel crops.             45
• Table 18. Advantages and disadvantages of biofuels, by generation.         46
• Table 19. Biodiesel by generation.            49
• Table 20. Biodiesel production techniques.          51
• Table 21. Summary of pyrolysis technique under different operating conditions. 51
• Table 22. Biomass materials and their bio-oil yield.            53
• Table 23. Biofuel production cost from the biomass pyrolysis process.      53
• Table 24. Properties of vegetable oils in comparison to diesel.     55
• Table 25. Main producers of HVO and capacities.               56
• Table 26. Example commercial Development of BtL processes.    57
• Table 27. Pilot or demo projects for biomass to liquid (BtL) processes.     58
• Table 28. Global biodiesel consumption, 2010-2033 (M litres/year).          62
• Table 29. Global renewable diesel consumption, to 2033 (M litres/year). 64
• Table 30. Advantages and disadvantages of biojet fuel    66
• Table 31. Production pathways for bio-jet fuel.   67
• Table 32. Current and announced biojet fuel facilities and capacities.        70
• Table 33. Global bio-jet fuel consumption to 2033 (Million litres/year).    71
• Table 34. Biogas feedstocks.       75
• Table 35. Bio-based naphtha markets and applications.   78
• Table 36. Bio-naphtha market value chain.            78
• Table 37. Bio-based Naphtha production capacities, by producer.               79
• Table 38. Comparison of biogas, biomethane and natural gas.      84
• Table 39.  Processes in bioethanol production.  90
• Table 40. Microorganisms used in CBP for ethanol production from biomass lignocellulosic.           92
• Table 41. Ethanol consumption 2010-2033 (million litres).             93
• Table 42. Summary of gasification technologies. 101
• Table 43. Overview of hydrothermal cracking for advanced chemical recycling.     107
• Table 44. Applications of e-fuels, by type.             109
• Table 45. Overview of e-fuels.    110
• Table 46. Benefits of e-fuels.      110
• Table 47. Main characteristics of different electrolyzer technologies.        115
• Table 48. Market challenges for e-fuels. 119
• Table 49. E-fuels companies.       120
• Table 50. Green ammonia projects (current and planned).             126
• Table 51. Blue ammonia projects.             128
• Table 52. Ammonia fuel cell technologies.            129
• Table 53. Market overview of green ammonia in marine fuel.       130
• Table 54. Summary of marine alternative fuels.  131
• Table 55. Estimated costs for different types of ammonia.             133
• Table 56. Main players in green ammonia.            134
• Table 57. Market overview for CO2 derived fuels.              137
• Table 58. Point source examples.              139
• Table 59. Advantages and disadvantages of DAC.               142
• Table 60. Companies developing airflow equipment integration with DAC.             149
• Table 61. Companies developing Passive Direct Air Capture (PDAC) technologies. 149
• Table 62. Companies developing regeneration methods for DAC technologies.     150
• Table 63. DAC companies and technologies.         151
• Table 64. DAC technology developers and production.    153
• Table 65. DAC projects in development. 157
• Table 66. Markets for DAC.          159
• Table 67. Costs summary for DAC.            159
• Table 68. Cost estimates of DAC.               163
• Table 69. Challenges for DAC technology.              165
• Table 70. DAC companies and technologies.         166
• Table 71. Microalgae products and prices.             168
• Table 72. Main Solar-Driven CO2 Conversion Approaches.             169
• Table 73. Companies in CO2-derived fuel products.          170
• Table 74. Granbio Nanocellulose Processes.         232

List of Figures

• Figure 1. Liquid biofuel production and consumption (in thousands of m3), 2000-2021.     21
• Figure 2. Distribution of global liquid biofuel production in 2021. 22
• Figure 3. Diesel and gasoline alternatives and blends.      29
• Figure 4.  Schematic of a biorefinery for production of carriers and chemicals.      40
• Figure 5. Hydrolytic lignin powder.           43
• Figure 6. Regional production of biodiesel (billion litres). 49
• Figure 7. Flow chart for biodiesel production.      54
• Figure 8. Global biodiesel consumption, 2010-2033 (M litres/year).           61
• Figure 9. Global renewable diesel consumption, to 2033 (M litres/year). 64
• Figure 10. Global bio-jet fuel consumption to 2033 (Million litres/year).  71
• Figure 11. Total syngas market by product in MM Nm³/h of Syngas, 2021.               72
• Figure 12. Overview of biogas utilization.               74
• Figure 13. Biogas and biomethane pathways.      75
• Figure 14. Bio-based naphtha production capacities, 2018-2033 (tonnes).              81
• Figure 15. Renewable Methanol Production Processes from Different Feedstocks.              83
• Figure 16. Production of biomethane through anaerobic digestion and upgrading.              84
• Figure 17. Production of biomethane through biomass gasification and methanation.       85
• Figure 18. Production of biomethane through the Power to methane process.     86
• Figure 19. Ethanol consumption 2010-2033 (million litres).            93
• Figure 20. Properties of petrol and biobutanol.   95
• Figure 21. Biobutanol production route. 95
• Figure 22. Waste plastic production pathways to (A) diesel and (B) gasoline           97
• Figure 23. Schematic for Pyrolysis of Scrap Tires. 99
• Figure 24. Used tires conversion process.              100
• Figure 25. Total syngas market by product in MM Nm³/h of Syngas, 2021.               102
• Figure 26. Overview of biogas utilization.               104
• Figure 27. Biogas and biomethane pathways.      105
• Figure 28. Process steps in the production of electrofuels.             108
• Figure 29. Mapping storage technologies according to performance characteristics.           109
• Figure 30. Production process for green hydrogen.           112
• Figure 31. E-liquids production routes.   113
• Figure 32. Fischer-Tropsch liquid e-fuel products.              113
• Figure 33. Resources required for liquid e-fuel production.            114
• Figure 34. Levelized cost and fuel-switching CO2 prices of e-fuels.             117
• Figure 35. Cost breakdown for e-fuels.   119
• Figure 36.  Pathways for algal biomass conversion to biofuels.     121
• Figure 37. Algal biomass conversion process for biofuel production.          122
• Figure 38. Classification and process technology according to carbon emission in ammonia production.    123
• Figure 39. Green ammonia production and use. 125
• Figure 40. Schematic of the Haber Bosch ammonia synthesis reaction.     127
• Figure 41. Schematic of hydrogen production via steam methane reformation.    127
• Figure 42. Estimated production cost of green ammonia.               133
• Figure 43. Projected annual ammonia production, million tons.   134
• Figure 44. CO2 capture and separation technology.          136
• Figure 45. Conversion route for CO2-derived fuels and chemical intermediates.   138
• Figure 46.  Conversion pathways for CO2-derived methane, methanol and diesel.               139
• Figure 47. CO2 captured from air using liquid and solid sorbent DAC plants, storage, and reuse.   141
• Figure 48. Global CO2 capture from biomass and DAC in the Net Zero Scenario.   142
• Figure 49.  DAC technologies.     144
• Figure 50. Schematic of Climeworks DAC system.               145
• Figure 51. Climeworks’ first commercial direct air capture (DAC) plant, based in Hinwil, Switzerland.          146
• Figure 52.  Flow diagram for solid sorbent DAC.  147
• Figure 53. Direct air capture based on high temperature liquid sorbent by Carbon Engineering.    148
• Figure 54. Global capacity of direct air capture facilities. 153
• Figure 55. Global map of DAC and CCS plants.      158
• Figure 56. Schematic of costs of DAC technologies.           161
• Figure 57. DAC cost breakdown and comparison.               162
• Figure 58. Operating costs of generic liquid and solid-based DAC systems.              164
• Figure 59. CO2 feedstock for the production of e-methanol.         167
• Figure 60. Schematic illustration of (a) biophotosynthetic, (b) photothermal, (c) microbial-photoelectrochemical, (d) photosynthetic and photocatalytic (PS/PC), (e) photoelectrochemical (PEC), and (f) photovoltaic plus electrochemical (PV+EC) approaches for CO2 c     169
• Figure 61. Audi synthetic fuels.  170
• Figure 62. ANDRITZ Lignin Recovery process.       179
• Figure 63. ChemCyclingTM prototypes.  184
• Figure 64. ChemCycling circle by BASF.   184
• Figure 65. FBPO process 194
• Figure 66. Direct Air Capture Process.     198
• Figure 67. CRI process.   201
• Figure 68. Cassandra Oil  process.             204
• Figure 69. Colyser process.          210
• Figure 70. Domsjö process.          214
• Figure 71. ECFORM electrolysis reactor schematic.            216
• Figure 72. Dioxycle modular electrolyzer.              217
• Figure 73. FuelPositive system.  227
• Figure 74. INERATEC unit.             241
• Figure 75. Infinitree swing method.         242
• Figure 76. Enfinity cellulosic ethanol technology process.               272
• Figure 77: Plantrose process.      278
• Figure 78. Sunfire process for Blue Crude production.      293
• Figure 79. O12 Reactor. 296
• Figure 80. Sunglasses with lenses made from CO2-derived materials.        296
• Figure 81. CO2 made car part.    297
• Figure 82. The Velocys process. 300
• Figure 83. Goldilocks process and applications.   303
• Figure 84. The Proesa® Process. 304
•