The Global Market for CCU-Derived Carbon Materials 2026–2036

1             EXECUTIVE SUMMARY            18

• 1.1        Report scope and definitions              18
• 1.2        The CCU-derived carbon materials thesis: triple revenue convergence  18
  • 1.2.1    Material revenue          19
  • 1.2.2    Co-product revenue (H₂, O₂, syngas)             19
  • 1.2.3    Carbon credit and abatement revenue         20
• 1.3        Total CCU-derived carbon materials market 2024–2036 20
• 1.4        Market by material output, region, and production route  21
• 1.5        Net-negative carbon claim quantification  23
• 1.6        Consolidated pricing comparison (CCU-derived vs conventional)            23
• 1.7        Key market drivers and headwinds 24
• 1.8        Top 20 commercial and pre-commercial players   25
• 1.9        Strategic outlook to 2036      26

2             INTRODUCTION AND METHDOLOGY           27

• 2.1        What counts as a "CCU-derived carbon material"                27
• 2.2        Boundaries: relationship to CCS, CCUS, CDR, and conventional carbon materials       28
• 2.3        Inclusion of methane pyrolysis: scope rationale    29
• 2.4        Carbon accounting boundaries used in this report               30
• 2.5        Forecast methodology and base/bull/bear assumptions 31
• 2.6        Glossary and abbreviations 32

3             POLICY, INCENTIVES AND CARBON MARKET CONTEXT  34

• 3.1        Overview: policy as the third revenue stream           34
• 3.2        United States 35
  • 3.2.1    IRA Section 45Q — utilisation tier ($60/tonne CO₂)              35
  • 3.2.2    IRA Section 45V — Clean Hydrogen Production Tax Credit              36
  • 3.2.3    DOE Loan Programs Office and ARPA-E support    37
  • 3.2.4    State-level incentives (California LCFS, Texas, Louisiana)              37
• 3.3        European Union           37
  • 3.3.1    EU Innovation Fund   37
  • 3.3.2    Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM)    38
  • 3.3.3    EU ETS interaction with CCU products         38
  • 3.3.4    Industrial Carbon Management Strategy     39
• 3.4        United Kingdom           39
  • 3.4.1    CCUS cluster funding (Track 1 and Track 2)               39
  • 3.4.2    Industrial Decarbonisation Strategy               40
• 3.5        Canada             40
  • 3.5.1    Federal Investment Tax Credit for CCUS      41
  • 3.5.2    Provincial programmes (Alberta TIER, Emissions Reduction Alberta)       41
• 3.6        Asia-Pacific    42
  • 3.6.1    China — national CCUS roadmap and pilot projects          42
  • 3.6.2    Japan — Green Innovation Fund        43
  • 3.6.3    South Korea — K-CCUS roadmap    43
  • 3.6.4    Australia — Future Industries Programme 44
• 3.7        Middle East     45
  • 3.7.1    UAE and Saudi Arabia CCUS strategy            45
• 3.8        Voluntary carbon market integration              45
  • 3.8.1    Verra VCS and CCU methodologies                45
  • 3.8.2    Puro.earth durable CDR standards 45
  • 3.8.3    Isometric and high-durability classifications           46
  • 3.8.4    Gold Standard              47
• 3.9        Durability classifications and permanence               48
  • 3.9.1    Short-, medium-, and long-duration carbon storage           48
  • 3.9.2    Durability requirements by buyer      48
• 3.10     LCA and carbon accounting frameworks    49
  • 3.10.1 ISO 14067 product carbon footprint               49
  • 3.10.2 GHG Protocol Product Standard      50
  • 3.10.3 Embodied carbon in construction (EN 15804, EPDs)          50
  • 3.10.4 Cradle-to-gate vs cradle-to-grave debates 51
• 3.11     Policy outlook and risk scenarios to 2036  52

4             CCUS INFRATRUCTURE AS A FEEDSTOCK BASE    53

• 4.1        Global operational capture capacity              53
• 4.2        Project pipeline            54
• 4.3        CO₂ source breakdown           55
  • 4.3.1    Power generation point sources        56
  • 4.3.2    Cement and steel        56
  • 4.3.3    Hydrogen, ammonia, and ethanol   56
  • 4.3.4    Direct air capture (DAC)         56
  • 4.3.5    Biogenic sources (BECCS, biogas)  56
• 4.4        CO₂ purity and partial pressure requirements by conversion route            58
• 4.5        CO₂ pricing landscape            59
• 4.6        CO₂ transport and offtake infrastructure     60
• 4.7        Geographic concentration of feedstock supply      61
• 4.8        Feedstock-to-material capacity mapping  62

5             PRODUCTION ROUTES — TECHNICAL AND ECONOMIC PROFILES        64

• 5.1        Comparative overview of routes        64
  • 5.1.1    Routes summary        64
  • 5.1.2    Capex/opex benchmarks across routes       64
• 5.2        Molten salt electrolysis           67
  • 5.2.1    Process description and chemistry 67
  • 5.2.2    Cathode/anode materials and morphology control              68
  • 5.2.3    Energy consumption (10–15 kWh/kg CNT)  69
  • 5.2.4    CO₂ feedstock requirements (~4 t CO₂ per t CNT) 70
  • 5.2.5    Output morphologies: CNTs, carbon nano-onions, graphitic platelets   70
  • 5.2.6    O₂ co-product valorisation   70
  • 5.2.7    Capex/opex benchmarks at pilot and commercial scale  70
  • 5.2.8    Scaling challenges and roadmap     71
  • 5.2.9    Leading developers    71
• 5.3        Plasma pyrolysis         72
  • 5.3.1    Process description (3,000–10,000°C plasma)       72
  • 5.3.2    Methane vs CO₂/CH₄ blended feedstock    73
  • 5.3.3    Hydrogen co-product economics and 45V interaction      74
  • 5.3.4    Output materials: carbon black analogues, graphitic carbon, CNT-like structures         74
  • 5.3.5    Energy intensity and renewable power dependency            75
  • 5.3.6    Capex/opex benchmarks       76
  • 5.3.7    Leading developers    76
• 5.4        Electrochemical CO₂ reduction         78
  • 5.4.1    Aqueous and gas-phase electrochemistry 78
  • 5.4.2    C1 and C2+ product slates (relevance to graphene precursors)  79
  • 5.4.3    Catalyst landscape    79
  • 5.4.4    Solid carbon vs liquid product trade-offs    80
  • 5.4.5    Leading developers    80
• 5.5        Catalytic and thermochemical conversion                80
  • 5.5.1    Reverse water-gas shift + Boudouard pathway        80
  • 5.5.2    Catalyst engineering and morphology control         81
  • 5.5.3    Hydrogen integration 82
  • 5.5.4    Pilot and demonstration status          82
  • 5.5.5    Leading developers    82
• 5.6        Mineralisation and carbonate-bound carbon           82
  • 5.6.1    Aqueous and direct mineralisation chemistries     82
  • 5.6.2    Aggregate, SCM, and filler products               84
  • 5.6.3    Carbonate-bound CO₂ permanence and credit treatment              84
  • 5.6.4    Leading developers    85
• 5.7        Photocatalytic and emerging routes               86
  • 5.7.1    Solar-driven CO₂ reduction   86
  • 5.7.2    Bioelectrochemical and microbial routes   87
  • 5.7.3    Concentrated solar carbothermal   87
• 5.8        Cross-cutting techno-economic comparison         87
  • 5.8.1    Cost per kg by route at pilot vs commercial scale 87
  • 5.8.2    Sensitivity to electricity price, CO₂ cost, and policy stack               89
  • 5.8.3    Break-even analysis under 45Q, EU ETS, and voluntary credit scenarios              89
  • 5.8.4    Energy intensity and embodied emissions 90

6             OUTPUT MATERIALS — BY MATERIAL TYPE 93

• 6.1        CNTs from CO₂             93
  • 6.1.1    MWCNT vs SWCNT routes    93
  • 6.1.2    Battery-grade qualification status    93
  • 6.1.3    Pricing vs Chinese MWCNT incumbents     94
  • 6.1.4    Production cost forecast 2026–2036            95
  • 6.1.5    Addressable applications      95
• 6.2        Carbon black from CO₂ and CH₄       96
  • 6.2.1    Plasma-derived carbon black analogues   96
  • 6.2.2    ASTM grade equivalence and reinforcement performance              96
  • 6.2.3    Tyre and rubber qualification timelines        97
  • 6.2.4    Conductive carbon black applications         97
• 6.3        Graphene and graphitic carbon         98
  • 6.3.1    Graphene oxide via CO₂-mineralisation routes       98
  • 6.3.2    Graphene quantum dots and nanoplatelets             98
  • 6.3.3    Quality vs CVD and exfoliation routes           98
• 6.4        Carbon fibres from CO₂          99
  • 6.4.1    CO₂-derived precursor pathways      99
  • 6.4.2    Mars Materials acrylonitrile route     99
  • 6.4.3    Aerospace and industrial qualification challenges               100
• 6.5        Synthetic graphite from CO₂ and CH₄            100
  • 6.5.1    Battery anode-grade specifications                100
  • 6.5.2    Hazer Group methane pyrolysis route           101
  • 6.5.3    Competitive position vs Chinese natural and synthetic graphite 101
• 6.6        Carbonate-bound aggregates and SCMs    102
  • 6.6.1    Coarse and fine aggregate products               102
  • 6.6.2    SCMs displacing Portland cement clinker  102
  • 6.6.3    Embodied carbon performance        103
• 6.7        Carbon nano-onions and other novel morphologies           104
• 6.8        Material quality and qualification matrix     104
  • 6.8.1    Impurity profiles by route       104
  • 6.8.2    Batch-to-batch consistency at pilot vs commercial scale               105
  • 6.8.3    Sector-specific qualification timelines (battery, aerospace, automotive, construction, medical)                105

7             DEMAND-SIDE ANALYSIS       107

• 7.1        Battery and energy storage   107
  • 7.1.1    Conductive additive demand (MWCNT, carbon black)      107
  • 7.1.2    Anode materials (synthetic graphite)             108
  • 7.1.3    OEM qualification programmes        108
  • 7.1.4    Low-CI material premiums in EV supply chains     109
• 7.2        Tyre and rubber             110
  • 7.2.1    Tyre OEM commitments to circular and low-CI carbon black        110
  • 7.2.2    Michelin, Goodyear, Bridgestone, Continental sustainability roadmaps               110
  • 7.2.3    Volume opportunity and substitution rate  111
• 7.3        Polymers and composites    112
  • 7.3.1    Masterbatch and compounding integration              112
  • 7.3.2    Packaging and consumer goods       112
• 7.4        Construction and concrete   113
  • 7.4.1    Cement and concrete admixtures   113
  • 7.4.2    Aggregate and SCM demand               113
  • 7.4.3    Embodied carbon-driven procurement (LEED, Buy Clean)              113
• 7.5        Aerospace and defence          114
• 7.6        Electronics and thermal management         114
• 7.7        Offtake agreements signed to date  114
• 7.7.1    Tracker of disclosed offtakes and LOIs         114
• 7.8        Corporate procurement commitments        116
  • 7.8.1    Frontier coalition         116
  • 7.8.2    Stripe Climate               116
  • 7.8.3    Microsoft, Google, Meta, Amazon   116
  • 7.8.4    Watershed and Patch buyer pools   116
• 7.9        Procurement decision criteria for low-CI carbon materials             117
• 7.10     Demand sizing 2026–2036 by application  118

8             PROJECT PIPELINE AND CAPACITY TRACKER          120

• 8.1        Methodology: project status definitions      120
• 8.2        Operating facilities (commercial and demonstration)        120
  • 8.2.1    Capacity, route, output material, location, operator            120
• 8.3        Under construction   123
• 8.4        Final investment decision (FID) taken            124
• 8.5        Announced and pre-FID          126
• 8.6        Aggregate capacity by route (tpa)     126
• 8.7        Aggregate capacity by region               127
• 8.8        Aggregate capacity by output material          128
• 8.9        Capacity build-out forecast 2026–2036      128
• 8.10     Project economics archetypes (cement-integrated, power-integrated, DAC-integrated)            130

9             FORECASTS TO 2036 132

• 9.1        Forecast methodology and scenario design             132
• 9.2        Base case: market size by year, route, material, region (2024–2036)       133
• 9.3        Bull case: assumptions and upside drivers                134
• 9.4        Bear case: assumptions and downside risks           135
• 9.5        Forecasts by material               136
  • 9.5.1    CNTs from CO₂             137
  • 9.5.2    Carbon black from CO₂/CH₄                137
  • 9.5.3    Graphene and graphitic carbon         138
  • 9.5.4    Carbon fibres from CO₂          139
  • 9.5.5    Synthetic graphite from CO₂/CH₄      139
  • 9.5.6    Carbonate-bound aggregates and SCMs    140
• 9.6        Forecasts by route      141
• 9.7        Forecasts by region   142
• 9.8        Capacity vs demand balance             143
• 9.9        Pricing trajectory forecasts   144
• 9.10     Carbon credit revenue contribution forecast            145
• 9.11     Tipping points and inflection scenarios       146

10          COMPANY PROFILES                147 (53 company profiles)

11          RESEARCH METHODOLOGY              207

• 11.1     Scope and definitions              207
• 11.2     Data sources  207
• 11.3     Forecast model construction              208
• 11.4     Assumptions and limitations              209
• 11.5     Currency, units, and conventions    210
• 11.6     Confidence intervals and forecast risk         210

12          REFERENCES 211

List of Tables

• Table 1. Total CCU-derived carbon materials market revenue, 2024–2036 ($M)               21
• Table 2. Market revenue by output material, 2026 / 2030 / 2036 ($M, base case)             21
• Table 3. Market revenue by region, 2026 / 2030 / 2036 ($M, base case)  22
• Table 4. Market revenue by production route, 2026 / 2030 / 2036 ($M, base case)          22
• Table 5. Carbon sequestered per tonne of material output by route          23
• Table 6. Price benchmark: CCU-derived vs conventional by material (2025, 2030, 2036)          23
• Table 7. Top 20 players: route, capacity, status, funding to date   25
• Table 8. Scenario assumptions: electricity price, CO₂ cost, carbon credit price, policy stack 32
• Table 9. Comparative policy stack summary across major jurisdictions                35
• Table 10. Section 45Q rates by storage type and project start date            36
• Table 11. Section 45V tiers by lifecycle CI   36
• Table 12. DOE awards to CCU-derived carbon material developers, 2020–2026             37
• Table 13. Innovation Fund awards relevant to CCU-derived carbon materials   37
• Table 14. Asia-Pacific CCU policy summary             44
• Table 15. Voluntary carbon market standards: durability, verification, fee structure      47
• Table 16. Durability requirements and price tiers by major corporate buyer        48
• Table 17. Operating CCUS facilities by region and capture capacity         53
• Table 18. CCUS project pipeline by stage (early, advanced, FID, construction) 54
• Table 19. Captured CO₂ supply by source type, current and forecast      57
• Table 20. CO₂ specification requirements by conversion technology       58
• Table 21. CO₂ delivered cost by source and region (2025, USD per tonne)            59
• Table 22. Co-located opportunities: industrial CO₂ source vs nearest CCU-material project  62
• Table 23. Production routes summary: TRL, energy intensity, CO₂ requirement, yield, co-products    64
• Table 24. Capex and opex benchmarks across routes at pilot and commercial scale   65
• Table 25. Cathode material vs output morphology and product grade    69
• Table 26. Molten salt electrolysis TEA: pilot vs projected commercial cost build-up     70
• Table 27. Molten salt electrolysis developers comparison              71
• Table 28. Hydrogen co-product revenue under 45V tiers  74
• Table 29. Plasma pyrolysis TEA at commercial scale          76
• Table 30. Plasma/methane pyrolysis developers comparison      76
• Table 31. Product selectivity by catalyst class         79
• Table 32. Mineralisation product slate, CO₂ uptake per tonne, and durability classification     84
• Table 33. Mineralisation developers comparison  85
• Table 34. Production cost per kg by route, pilot and commercial scale   87
• Table 35. Break-even production cost under three policy scenarios         90
• Table 36. CCU-derived CNT spec comparison vs Chinese MWCNT incumbents              93
• Table 37. CCU-derived CNT production cost trajectory     95
• Table 38. Plasma-derived carbon black vs ASTM N-series specifications             96
• Table 39. CCU-derived carbon black price and capacity 2025–2036       97
• Table 40. Graphene from CO₂: spec, defect density, layer count vs conventional routes            98
• Table 41. Anode-grade synthetic graphite specifications 100
• Table 42. SCM and aggregate performance: CO₂ uptake, strength, durability     103
• Table 43. Impurity matrix by production route and output material            104
• Table 44. Qualification timeline matrix: material × end-use sector            105
• Table 45. Battery conductive additive demand 2026–2036            107
• Table 46. Battery and EV OEM qualification programmes for CCU-derived materials    108
• Table 47. Tyre OEM low-CI carbon black commitments and target dates              110
• Table 48. Construction sector demand for CCU-derived carbonate-bound products   113
• Table 49. Disclosed offtake agreements and LOIs 2020–2026 (buyer, seller, volume, term, status)     114
• Table 50. Corporate carbon procurement commitments by buyer, durability, dollars committed         116
• Table 51. Total addressable demand by sector, 2026 / 2030 / 2036           118
• Table 52. Operating CCU-derived carbon material facilities (2025)          120
• Table 53. Under-construction projects, expected commissioning date  123
• Table 54. FID-taken projects 2024–2026     124
• Table 55. Announced and pre-FID projects, indicative timeline   126
• Table 56. Capacity build-out forecast (tpa) by route, region, material      129
• Table 57. Project archetype economics comparison          130
• Table 58. Scenario assumptions and key drivers    132
• Table 59. Base case forecast — global market revenue 2024–2036          133
• Table 60. Bull case forecast 134
• Table 61. Bear case forecast — global market revenue 2024–2036 ($M) 135
• Table 62. CNTs from CO₂: revenue and volume forecast   137
• Table 63. Carbon black from CO₂/CH₄: revenue and volume forecast     137
• Table 64. Graphene and graphitic carbon: revenue and volume forecast              138
• Table 65. Carbon fibres from CO₂: revenue and volume forecast                139
• Table 66. Synthetic graphite from CO₂/CH₄: revenue and volume forecast          139
• Table 67. Carbonate-bound aggregates and SCMs: revenue and volume forecast (base case)              140
• Table 68. Revenue forecast by production route     141
• Table 69. Revenue forecast by region (base case, $M)       142
• Table 70. Pricing trajectory forecasts by material (base case, $/kg or $/t)              144
• Table 71. Carbon credit and policy revenue as % of total revenue, by route         145
• Table 72. Master company comparison: route, capacity, funding, TRL, key markets      147

List of Figures

• Figure 1. Market size 2024–2036, base/bull/bear  19
• Figure 2. Triple revenue convergence schematic    20
• Figure 3. Scope diagram: CCU vs CCS vs CCUS vs CDR   28
• Figure 4. System boundary diagram for LCA              31
• Figure 5. Policy revenue contribution waterfall by jurisdiction      34
• Figure 6. EU ETS price evolution 2020–2026 and forward curves 38
• Figure 7. UK CCUS cluster geography            40
• Figure 8. Carbon credit price ranges by standard and durability tier (2025)         47
• Figure 9. Policy stack value to 2036 under three scenarios             52
• Figure 10. Global CCUS capacity map (operational and announced)      54
• Figure 11. CCUS capacity build-out 2020–2036 with project status overlay         55
• Figure 12. CO₂ source mix evolution 2025 → 2036 57
• Figure 13. CO₂ cost evolution 2020–2036, point-source vs DAC  60
• Figure 14. Major CO₂ transport infrastructure (US Gulf, EU North Sea, UK clusters)       61
• Figure 15. TRL vs commercial maturity matrix by route      67
• Figure 16. Molten salt electrolysis process schematic       68
• Figure 17. Plasma pyrolysis process schematic      73
• Figure 18. Plasma pyrolysis carbon intensity vs grid emissions factor     75
• Figure 19. Electrochemical CO₂ reduction process schematic     78
• Figure 20. RWGS + Boudouard process flow             81
• Figure 21. Mineralisation pathway diagram               83
• Figure 22. Cost-curve comparison: CCU-derived vs conventional benchmarks               88
• Figure 23. Tornado chart — TEA sensitivity by input variable          89
• Figure 24. Embodied emissions of output material by route and electricity source        91
• Figure 25. CO₂-to-acrylonitrile-to-carbon-fibre pathway  99
• Figure 26. Synthetic graphite supply: China dominance vs CCU-derived alternatives  102
• Figure 27. Premium pricing for low-CI battery materials   110
• Figure 28. CCU-derived carbon black share of total tyre demand 2026–2036   112
• Figure 29. Demand share by sector evolution          119
• Figure 30. Aggregate capacity by route, 2025 vs 2030 vs 2036      127
• Figure 31. Project pipeline geography map 128
• Figure 32. Cumulative capacity vs cumulative demand, 2026–2036       130
• Figure 33. Base case market trajectory         134
• Figure 34. Three-scenario fan chart 2024–2036     136
• Figure 35. Route share evolution 2024–2036           142
• Figure 36. Regional growth rates       143
• Figure 37. Capacity vs demand balance by material            144
• Figure 38. Inflection scenario timeline          146
• Figure 39. PCCSD Project in China. 171
• Figure 40. Orca facility.            172
• Figure 41. OCOchem’s Carbon Flux Electrolyzer.   194

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The Global Market for CCU-Derived Carbon Materials 2026–2036

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The Global Market for CCU-Derived Carbon Materials 2026–2036

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